How To Build SEO Projections For Your Ecommerce Brand

TL;DR

Building SEO projections helps ecommerce leaders answer the question every stakeholder asks: “What will I get from this investment?”

By combining first-party data (Analytics, Search Console) with third-party data (SEMrush, Ahrefs), you can estimate potential traffic, conversions, and revenue growth. I wrote this post to break down the process, from data collection to presenting results that secure buy-in and guide smarter decisions.

Why SEO Projections Are a Non-Negotiable for Growth

Every ecommerce owner or marketing leader faces the same question: If we invest in SEO, what will it deliver for our company?

It’s a question that comes up over and over again in my conversations with potential clients.

SEO projections help answer that question. But it’s important to understand that projections are not guarantees; they’re educated forecasts based on real 1st and 3rd party data and market trends.

When done right, they become a strategic planning tool that helps you:

  • Secure executive or investor buy-in by showing potential ROI.
  • Set realistic performance goals tied to organic revenue.
  • Prioritize high-impact opportunities instead of chasing low-value keywords.
  • Measure progress against clear, data-driven benchmarks.

Remember: SEO projections are models, not promises. They rely on assumptions, historical performance, and third-party data. Variables like algorithm updates, competitor activity, or SERP design changes can influence results. The goal is to set expectations, not to predict the future with perfect accuracy… because that’s impossible.

How to Make Projections for SEO: A Quick Overview

To create an SEO projection, you’ll start by taking time to gather all of the data you need. First, identify the target keywords you want to rank for and their estimated search volume (I’ll talk about estimated search volume below). Second, analyze your historical website performance by gathering organic traffic, click-through rate, and conversion rate. You will then estimate potential traffic by applying your historical click-through rates to each of those keyword volumes. Finally, you’ll calculate potential conversions and revenue based on your website’s average conversion rate and your average order value to forecast your business impact.

Gathering Your Arsenal: The Data and Tools You’ll Need

Accurate projections depend on your ability to gather accurate data. In order to do this right, you’ll need both first-party and third-party sources to create the most reliable SEO projections.

First-Party Data (Your Digital Footprint)

First, start with your own data, which tells the most accurate story about your past performance and customer behavior.

There are two platforms you’ll need to look at when doing this:

  • Google Analytics: Identify your organic traffic, conversion rates, and average order value (AOV). Segment data by landing page or product category to find where SEO improvements can have the biggest impact.
  • Google Search Console: Evaluate which keywords currently drive impressions, clicks, and CTR. This helps establish your baseline.

Example: If your company sells women’s tote bags and you currently rank in position 9 for “leather tote bag” with a 1.3% click-through rate, moving that keyword to the top three positions could potentially raise your click-through rate to 12-15%, possibly more. From there, you should be able to predict what that traffic flow and revenue would look like.

Third-Party Data (The Competitive Landscape)

Next, you’ll need to tap into third-party data, which, as we all know, isn’t 100% reliable. You will need to leverage paid tools like SEMrush and Ahrefs to fill in the competitive and keyword-discovery gaps. These tools will show you:

  • Monthly search volume and keyword difficulty.
  • Competitor traffic estimates for similar keywords.
  • Backlink profiles and top-ranking pages.

Because this is third-party data, please don’t take it as gospel. We often learn that search volume data could be estimated up to 25% too high, sometimes more.

The most important thing to understand is that this outside-in view helps you identify growth opportunities, like keywords you don’t currently rank for but should.

Example: Let’s take that same women’s tote bag company, and you also sell “canvas tote bags”. You currently rank in position 66 for that keyword since you just launched it as a product 25 days ago. Because you’re in position 66, you are getting zero impressions and zero clicks reported in search console. SEMRush shows that the keyword has approximately 14,800 searches per month. Knock that down by at least 25%, which brings you down to about 11,800. Take that number and start working your math. See how it works?

Let’s jump into the step-by-step.

A Step-by-Step Framework for Building Your SEO Projections Model

Step 1: Define Your Target Keyword Set

Keyword research is the foundation of everything you do in SEO. As you are using your keyword research tool, group keywords by theme and intent:

  • Informational: These are keywords that are typically tied back to blog content that drives top-funnel awareness
  • Transactional: These are keywords that are typically tied back to category and product pages
  • Commercial: These are keywords that are typically tied back to pre-purchase research
  • Brand: These are branded search terms and variations

Use filters in SEMrush or Ahrefs to focus on keywords with both search volume and achievable difficulty scores. You might not want to be chasing keywords that will take you 2 years to rank for. Most importantly, build keyword groups that align with your business goals.

Example: A cookware brand might have clusters like “ceramic pans”, “non-stick cookware sets”, and “eco-friendly pots”. Inside each of those clusters, you can group your keywords by intent so you can map to specific pages and posts.

Step 2: Calculate Potential Organic Traffic

Next, you’ll estimate the monthly visitors each keyword COULD generate if you’re able to rank in the top three results.

Formula: Monthly Search Volume x .75 (25% adjustment mentioned above) × Estimated click-through rate = Projected Monthly Traffic

Keep in mind that your click-through rate will vary based on ranking position. You can use industry click-through benchmarks (like Backlinko’s data) or your own Search Console averages:

Position Avg. CTR

  • #1 39.8%
  • #2 18.7%
  • #3 10.2%
  • #4–10 2–10%

You should also note that these numbers could decrease if a solid AI overview shows you for your search query and is able to fully answer a searcher’s question or solve their problem.

Example:

  • Keyword: “non stick cookware set”
  • Search Volume: 2,400
  • Realistic Volume (75%): 1,800
  • Target Rank: #2
  • CTR: 18.2%
  • Projected Monthly Traffic = 1,800 × 0.182 = 328 visits

Step 3: Forecast Leads and Conversions

As we all know, website traffic alone doesn’t pay the bills. That’s why I wrote this post about measuring SEO results and impact on your business. At the end of the day, you must connect visitors to sales.

Formula: Projected Monthly Traffic × Avg. Organic Conversion Rate = Projected Conversions

Use your own ecommerce conversion rate (from Analytics). For most DTC brands, organic conversion rates range from 0.8% to 2.5%, depending on product price and purchase friction.

Example:

  • Projected Traffic: 328 visits
  • Conversion Rate: 1.8%
  • Projected Conversions = 328 × 0.018 = 6 sales

Step 4: Project Revenue and Calculate ROI

Finally, translate those conversions into potential revenue.

Formula: Projected Conversions × Average Order Value = Projected Revenue

Example:

  • 6 conversions × $220 AOV = $1,320 monthly revenue
  • Over 12 months, that’s $15,840 in potential revenue from just one keyword.

To show ROI, compare this against your estimated SEO investment. If you’re spending $5,000/month on SEO, you’ll need approximately 8 keywords like this to 2x your return on your SEO investment. As you can see, it really doesn’t take much to move the needle and build even stronger compounding returns over time.

Choosing the Right Forecasting Model for Your Business

For New Websites or New Markets: The Competitor-Based Model

If you don’t have much historical data in your Google Analytics or Search Console accounts, you’ll want to benchmark your competitors. To do this, identify 2 – 3 brands with similar products, site structure, and domain authority.

Then:

  • Analyze their estimated organic traffic by category using SEMrush or Ahrefs.
  • Note which keywords drive the most traffic.
  • Apply their performance ratios (traffic per keyword, click-through rates) to your own target list.

Example: If a competitor drives ~30,000 organic visits/month from 300 ranking keywords, your 100-keyword campaign might project around 10,000 visits once rankings mature.

For Established Websites: The Historical-Growth Model

If you already have data in your accounts, this model is far more accurate and preferred.

  • Use Google Analytics and Search Console to calculate historical MoM or YoY organic growth rates.
  • Account for seasonality (use Google Trends for keyword fluctuations).
  • Apply that rate forward to project 6 – 12 months of future performance.

Example: If your organic sessions have grown 8% month-over-month on average, projecting that growth over the next six months provides a realistic baseline scenario.

Beyond the Spreadsheet: Presenting Projections to Win Stakeholder Buy-In

You can have the most accurate forecast in the world, but if your stakeholders don’t understand them and how they tie to their business growth, it won’t matter. In most things in business, presentation is everything.

Tips for Communicating Projections Effectively

  • Visualize the data: Use charts showing baseline vs. projected growth in traffic, conversions, and revenue.
  • State assumptions clearly: Example: Assuming a 1.8% conversion rate and $120 AOV – Show them exactly where you got this data from.
  • Provide three scenarios: conservative, realistic, and optimistic.
  • Tie projections back to business goals: Frame outcomes in terms of revenue, customer acquisition, and ROI, not just clicks.
  • Use plain language: Avoid jargon and make the data accessible to finance and executive teams.

Example: If we rank on page one for our top 50 keywords, we project an additional $500K in annual revenue from organic search, representing a 3x ROI on our SEO investment. Short, sweet, and crystal clear.

Common Pitfalls in SEO Forecasting (And How to Avoid Them)

Hopefully, as you’ve seen, forecasting and building projections isn’t a perfect solution, and even experienced marketers can make mistakes when modeling SEO growth.

As you’re building, here are some traps to avoid:

  • Assuming linear growth: SEO results compound over time, not increase evenly.
  • Ignoring seasonality: Search demand for “pool accessories” drops in winter, adjust for cycles.
  • Neglecting technical SEO issues: Slow sites or crawl errors can prevent keywords from ranking well.
  • Over-optimistic timelines: Depending on the stage of your business and how long your website has been online, it can take 3 – 9 months to see meaningful results.
  • Using incomplete data: Don’t rely solely on one tool; triangulate data across Analytics, Search Console, and SEMrush.
  • Failing to revisit the forecast: Re-evaluate projections quarterly to stay aligned with changing market conditions. Remember when tariffs went into place and you had to raise your prices? You likely saw conversion rates fall. Things change. Make adjustments regularly.

Turning Your SEO Projections Into Reality

SEO projections aren’t about predicting the future; they’re about planning smarter. When built correctly, they align teams, secure budgets, and set realistic expectations for growth.

As mentioned at the beginning of the post… the real value isn’t just in the numbers, it’s in the clarity they provide. They help ecommerce leaders answer the questions that matter most:

  • What are our best opportunities?
  • How much traffic and revenue can we realistically generate?
  • What’s our path to profitable growth?

If you’re ready to create a custom SEO projection tailored to your ecommerce brand, reach out to our team. We’ll help you model, measure, and scale your organic growth confidently.

Frequently Asked Questions About Forecasting SEO Results

How accurate are SEO forecasts?

SEO forecasts are educated estimates based on data and assumptions. Accuracy depends on data quality, your site’s past performance, and external factors like algorithm updates. Use a range (conservative to optimistic) rather than a single figure.

Can you really predict SEO results?

Not precisely. But you can model potential outcomes using historical CTRs, conversion rates, and keyword opportunities. Think of it as scenario planning that informs smarter decisions, not fortune-telling.

How long does it take to achieve projected results?

Most brands begin to see measurable SEO gains within 4–6 months, with full impact typically visible after 9 – 12 months. The timeline depends on your site’s authority, competition level, and execution quality.

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